Ground Radar Systems of the Luftwaffe, 1939-1945 by Werner Müller

By Werner Müller

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The probability of any woman giving birth to a boy can, for example, be determined by observing the number of boys born as a proportion of all children born in the population as a whole over say one year. In this case the experiment, giving birth to a boy, is repeated a sufficiently large number of times! When observation is not possible or repeated experiment unreasonable, it is sometimes possible to determine the probability logically. Coincidentally, this has been done above in the coin-tossing example, and is most often done where the experiment can be shown to possess symmetrical (equally likely) outcomes.

In general between 6 and 10 utils need to be assessed to enable a reasonable utility curve to be drawn. The value of q is simply a device to establish the difference levels. The probability selected for winning the reference lottery has nothing to do with the chance of the most favourable outcome occurring. In selecting the value of q the decision-maker has only expressed his attitude towards any outcome, as compared with the standard gamble. A somewhat revised version of this procedure has been suggested (Coyle, 1972) to try to simplify and reduce the hypothetical nature of the reference lottery.

Assuming that the decision rule is EMV (maximize return), and there are no more stages in the decision, then the decision is invest in D. Essentially a graphical method, the development of decision trees provides a first approximation for solving decision problems. Because of this, the process is as much an art as a science. The development of each branch and labelling actions and outcomes may stimulate new ideas as to how the problem may proceed. 3 others, then the latter can be pruned out at an early stage so that the analysis is not confused.

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