Fundamental Uncertainty: Rationality and Plausible Reasoning by Silva Marzetti, Roberto Scazzieri (editors)

By Silva Marzetti, Roberto Scazzieri (editors)

This volume addresses the subject of uncertainty from the perspective of a longer perception of rationality. particularly, the contributions discover the premises and implications of believable reasoning while chances are non-measurable or unknown, and while the distance of attainable occasions is simply partly pointed out.

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Additional info for Fundamental Uncertainty: Rationality and Plausible Reasoning

Sample text

And Marcos, E. (2009), ‘The Concepts of Model in Information Systems Engineering: A Proposal for an Ontology of Models’, The Knowledge Engineering Review, 24 (1), pp. 5–21. Scazzieri, R. (2001), ‘Analogy, Causal Pattterns and Economic Choice’, in M. C. Galavotti, P. Suppes and D. Costantini (eds), Stochastic Causality, Stanford: CSLI Publications, pp. 123–39. ——— (2008), ‘Context, Congruence and Coordination’, in M. C. Galavotti, R. Scazzieri and P. Suppes (eds), Reasoning, Rationality and Probability, Stanford: CSLI Publications, pp.

Furthermore, to the extent that probabilities are based on our knowledge of frequencies—and surely some probabilities are so based—it is natural to suppose that they are often interval valued, since our knowledge of frequencies is inevitably approximate. In any event, it is clear that we can find a set of objects that has the structure that Keynes assigned to probabilities, and that this structure is consistent and coherent. What is curious is that the mathematician– philosopher, Frank Ramsey, paid no attention to this structure in his review of the Treatise (Ramsey, 1922), though he did attack the claims that some probabilities were incomparable and that some were nonnumerical.

Ramsey wants to claim that there is no such relation. The connection between partial belief and choice behavior, according to Ramsey, is provided by mathematical expectation and the Dutch Book Argument. That we do not find the argument entirely valid does not keep it from being suggestive, and of course there is a connection between mathematical expectation and behavior. Ramsey regards the two interpretations (partial belief and frequency) as “the objective and 30 Logic, Empiricism and Probability Structures subjective aspects of the same inner meaning” (Ramsey, 1931, p.

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