Economic Information, Decision, and Prediction: Selected by M. Marschak

By M. Marschak

The papers of Jacob Marschak which stick with in those volumes are a unprecedented blend of unique and fruitful departures in monetary and social concept, great readability of exposition, and sensitivity to the values of past paintings or even competing traditions. They make us wonder alike at their sort, their volume, and their caliber. yet they don't, nevertheless, absolutely replicate Marschak's contributions to the improvement of social technological know-how. He has had an strange effect as one that routines management. In a proper, organizational experience, this position has been occur in his capability as Director of the Cowles fee for study in Economics, then on the college of Chicago, in that organization's most efficient and influential interval, and later in his principal position within the Western administration technological know-how Institute, on the collage of California at la. i will converse from first-hand wisdom in regards to the first. His precise capacities are, first, the popularity of promising new techniques and of promising younger students, and, moment, getting his colleagues to affix him in constructing the information and concerning them absolutely within the precious projects. there has been an strange mix of power and humility in his tools; a exhibit of strength in pushing the paintings alongside yet a willingness, virtually an insistence, on treating even the main junior affiliate as a completely equivalent colleague in highbrow increase­ ment, whose feedback of himself used to be to be inspired. His management has been exercised within the absence of formal positions.

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Extra resources for Economic Information, Decision, and Prediction: Selected Essays: Volume I Part I Economics of Decision

Sample text

RATIONAL BEHAVIOR, UNCERTAIN PROSPECTS 35 If it means that the sign of the risk-discount is indefinite, the statement is consistent with rational behavior as defined by the four postulates. ) If it means, however, that the man 'loves danger' so that his utility function of prospects is not monotonic along a straight line in space A, drawn at an angle to the indifference planes, then the statement is not consistent with the four postulates. Should one revise the postulates of rational choice in order to be able to include love of danger under rational behavior, then it would probably become impossible to attain manageable utility indices in the sense of Part VI.

Following the 'precept,' S* is not chosen in preference to S'; that is. 2:4). 3: 1) Jlu(S*) ~ Jlu(S'); Suppose. in addition. that neither is S' chosen in preference to S*. 1. This must remain true for prospects such that P:=FP~ for n~2 and p:=p~=O for n>2. Then the three equations 2 L(P: o N 2 p~·u(XJ = L(P: 0 p~·v(XJ = L0 (P: - p~·l form a homogeneous linear system in the three (p:-P~. 2. Hence the u(XJ, v(Xn), 1 are linearly dependent, for any three arbitrarily chosen values of n. Therefore, there exist 0(, p such that v(Xn) = + pu(Xn).

This is tantamount to the use of the domain of probabilities, A, as in Part I above. To become more than a change in notation, this suggestion will need an additional postulate (part IV). With the help of such a postulate, it will be shown in Part V that indifference sets in the A-space must be parallel hyperplanes. This will, in turn, imply the possibility of defining utility functions determined up to linear transformations. It will also imply that such a utility index of an uncertain prospect a=(ao, ...

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