Construction and Real Estate Dynamics (Applied Econometrics by Philippe Thalmann, Milad Zarin-Nejadan

By Philippe Thalmann, Milad Zarin-Nejadan

This assortment bargains with a few fascinating monetary questions concerning building and genuine property, specifically how building agencies focus on the volatility of building; no matter if speculative bubbles or marketplace basics force these fluctuations; new thoughts to foretell building call for; why the place of work marketplace led the hot genuine property cycle; and even if law is answerable for speculative habit.

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Extra info for Construction and Real Estate Dynamics (Applied Econometrics Association)

Sample text

1 refer to the following analysis is suggested: as the reasoning is based on an equilibrium market, supply and demand are equal. Moreover, in a bubble mechanism, quantities only change under the mere influence of price. In other words, the supply and demand curves do not shift; however, there are shifts along these curves. Consequently, supply and demand curves are the same and the price-quantity path represents both demand and supply curves. This is not surprising insofar as the same agents most often intervene on the supply and demand sides.

We will deal with this issue in the next part. On the other hand, in the bubble model as in any dynamic model, the price formation model – in this case, the bubble phenomenon – and the (rational) expectation scheme are both simultaneously tested. As the bubble hypothesis is null, one does not know whether to get rid of the expectation scheme, the model, or both. Then it is possible to consider the bubble hypothesis together with another expectation scheme. The 1985–95 Cycle in Real Estate Markets 49 Another expectation hypothesis is the hypothesis of naive expectations.

Hence, the cycle would have meant a move of the line between rented housing and owned housing. It is possible to speak about a ‘cycle of the tenure’. The cycle would have been the process of demand adaptation to this change in the type of holders, given the necessary time of acquisition. Once this process was over, one would come back to the initial situation in terms of rent and price since in perfect markets, both tenures are equivalent for the occupier. This would make the phenomenon appear as a bubble.

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